Following the temperature issues that were highlighted by the island of Tuvalu yesterday, more than half the world's countries say they are determined not to sign up to any deal that allows temperatures to rise by more than 1.5C - as opposed to 2C - which the major economies would prefer.
But any agreement to reach that target would require massive and rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions combined with removal of CO2 in the atmosphere. An extra 0.5C drop in temperatures would require vastly deeper cuts in carbon dioxide and up to $10.5 trillion (£6.5tr) extra in energy-related investment by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency.
Holding temperatures to an increase of 1.5C compared to preindustrial levels would mean stabilising carbon concentrations in the atmosphere at roughly 350 parts per million (ppm), down from a present 387ppm. No technology currently exists to feasibly remove CO2 from the atmosphere on a large scale.
"Tuvalu has taken a strong stand to put the focus back on their bottom line. Nothing but a legally binding deal will deliver the strong commitments to urgent action that are needed to avoid catastrophe, especially to the most vulnerable countries and people," said the Oxfam spokesman Barry Coates.
Today the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis), a grouping of 43 of the smallest and most vulnerable countries, including Tuvalu, said any rise of more than 1.5C was not negotiable at Copenhagen. They are backed by 48 of the least developed nations.
The UN conference chief Yvo de Boer, today implied this morning that the proposal had little chance of being adopted. "It is theoretically possible that the conference will agree to hold temperatures to 1.5C but most industrialised countries have pinned their hopes on 2C," he said.
The 2C figure, which was included in the leaked 'Danish text'by has emerged as the figure favoured by large economies and the likeliest to be adopted. But the poorest countries say that latest science implies that a 2C warming would lead to disastrous consequences – for example from sea level rise.
"We have two research stations, one in the Pacific and one in the Caribbean. They both suggest a rise of 2C is completely untenable for us," said Dessima Williams, a Grenadian diplomat speaking for Aosis.
"Our islands are disappearing, our coral reefs are bleaching, we are losing our fish supplies. We bring empirical evidence to Copenhagen of what climate change is doing now to our states," she said.
350.org have campaigned throughout the year for CO2 levels to be reduced from current levels rather than limited to two degrees, along with other NGO's such as Tck, Tck, Tck they have backed the call for a deal that limits warming to 1.5C.
Emerging economies add their proposed climate draft, in light of the developed nations leaked 'Danish Text' and the unveiling of the Tuvalu proposal yesterday
The major emerging economies have called on rich countries to reduce their carbon emissions by more than 40 percent.
China, India, South Africa and Brazil, the four major emerging economies finalised an 11-page draft, during a closed door meeting in November– the "Copenhagen Accord." It requires a "binding" amendment to the Kyoto Protocol and calls for rich countries to reduce their carbon emissions by more than 40 percent compared to 1990 levels, AFP reported.
The initiative, led by Beijing, was conceived as a rebuttal by developing countries to the "Danish text" allegedly written by the UN conference's host country leaked to the press yesterday.
According to AFP, the "Copenhagen Accord", posted on the website of French daily Le Monde, embraces the objective of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. It calls on rich countries – committed to CO2 reductions under the Kyoto Protocol of at least five percent by 2012 – to "multiply by eight" and points out that reductions should be made "mainly through domestic measures" and this will not include the purchase of so-called "offsets" outside their borders in developing countries.
Regarding funding, the world's major emerging economies call for the creation of a special fund under the authority of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).